So much for 12-hour-old New Year’s predictions. In vowing in his State of the State address today  to spare K-12 and higher education from further budget cuts, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would make two of mine look foolish: that the state would cut billions more from K-12 schools and that he would seek a waiver the Obama administration’s stimulus regulations to further reduce education spending.

I’ll be happy if wrong, but am not convinced I will be. Let’s wait till Friday’s release of the budget to learn what he means by “protect” education funding.

K-12, community colleages and higher education comprise about half of general fund spending. The state faces a $20 billion deficit over the next month. Schwarzenegger hasn’t changed his position on no new taxes. Unless he can read President Obama’s mind, he can’t assume there will be a second round of stimulus aid.  So that leaves eviscerating Medi-Cal and human services and slashing the prison budget. Democrats won’t do the former, and Republicans won’t agree to the latter.

So is the governor setting up the Legislature to be the fall guys — the ones who cut school spending for him? Shrewd politics, for sure, for a governor on his way out.

Over the past two years, the state has cut K-12 funding by about $14 billion. This year’s budget includes $50.4 billion in Prop 98 funding, the primary source of money for K-12 schools and community colleges. In its November budget analysis, the Legislative Analyst’s Office said that, for technical reasons, the true Prop 98 obligation is $51.4 billion. And it projected the 2010-’11 obligation at $51 billion.

Schwarzenegger’s budget, benefiting from another month’s revenues in hand, may be slightly different – but probably not much.