Grad rate falls 5 percentage points in a decade
Fifteen states saw a decline in their high school graduation rates from 1997 to 2007, and California, with a drop of 4.7 percentage points, from 67.4 to 62.7 percent, was the second worst, behind Nevada, according to Education Week’s latest Diplomas Count.
The national graduation rate of 68.8 percent in 2007 was 3.1 percentage points higher than in 1997, though there was a slight decrease from 2006. Although California’s graduation rate lagged the national average in 2007 by a full 6.1 percentage points, each of its major racial and ethnic subgroups actually outperformed students nationwide in 2007.
Consider:
- American Indian: California – 51.5%; U.S. average – 50.7%;
- Asian: California – 83.5%; U.S. average – 80.7%;
- Hispanic: California – 57%; U.S. average – 55.5%;
- African-American: California – 57%; U.S. average – 55.5%;
- White: California – 78.2%; U.S. average – 76.6%.
The reason is for the seeming discrepancy is that California has a much higher proportion of English learners – nearly one in four students, primarily Hispanics – than in other states, which lowers the state’s overall average.
There could be a number of reasons for the decline in the state’s graduation rate over the decade, including the institution of the high school exit exam for the class of 2006. However, Education Count also notes that California’s 13 course credit requirements for a standard diploma is among the lowest in the nation.
These numbers are a really sad reminder of how much work needs to be done in California – and across the country – to help students succeed.
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Until the source of the information used to compile these “diploma figures” is recognized on the universal scale, we will continue to have vastly conflicting reporting. If you take entering freshman numbers, and graduating senior numbers, you get this absurd “dropout factory” mentality. Look at the federally mandated report cards that each school has to submit, and the figures are much different. They generally reflect 95 to 98.2% of the seniors graduate. There is no tracking device for those freshman that transfer out of the school of origin and if they have completed their graduation elsewhere: NO ONE KNOWS. Useless analysis strikes again.
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I’d like to see a response to Mr. Lobby’s analysis. John, could you go to the “Diplomas Count” source and ask?
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Caroline: For starters – and it will probably will not provide the full answer, here are the criteria that Diplomat Counts used to calculate the graduation rate. The student identifiers created for CALPADS will better enable schools to track students who drop out and appear in another district. I am assuming that states with data systems up and running may have more accurate rates. I’ll inquire when I can.
From page 30 of the Diploma Counts report:
How Does the EPE Research Center
Calculate Graduation Rates?
Diplomas Count uses the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)
method to calculate high school graduation rates for American
public schools. This approach allows the EPE Research Center to
compute the percent of public high school students who graduate
on time with a diploma.
The CPI method represents the high school experience as
a process rather than an event, capturing the four key steps a
student must take in order to graduate: three grade-to-grade
promotions (9 to 10, 10 to 11, and 11 to 12) and ultimately earning
a diploma (grade 12 to graduation). Each of these individual
components corresponds to a grade-promotion ratio. Multiplying
these four grade-specific promotion ratios together produces the
graduation rate.
Different methods for calculating a graduation rate may employ
different definitions of a “graduate.” The CPI method adheres
to the guidelines established under the federal No Child Left
Behind Act, by counting only students receiving standard high
school diplomas as graduates. Recipients of General Educational
Development diplomas, certificates of attendance, and other
nondiploma credentials are treated as nongraduates in this
context. States are likewise mandated to adopt a similar definition
of a graduate for the rates they calculate for adequate yearly
progress (AYP) under the federal law (although they may adopt
different definitions for other purposes).
The 2010 edition of Diplomas Count presents a new analysis of
graduation rates for the high school class of 2007, the most recent
year for which information is available. Data for 2007 and prior
years were obtained from the U.S. Department of Education’s
Common Core of Data (CCD). The CCD, an annual census of all
public schools and school districts in the country, also provided
the data on district characteristics used in this report’s analyses of
expected graduation rates.
The District of Columbia, Kentucky, and Oregon did not report
2006-07 diploma counts for student subgroups to the CCD. The
EPE Research Center was able to obtain additional graduation
data directly from the state education agencies of Kentucky and
Oregon.
The EPE Research Center calculates graduation rates for all
school districts in the country that issue diplomas (that is to say,
those with a 12th grade). Statistics for the nation and states are
generated by aggregating district-level data upward.
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So if I’m reading that right, the CPI counts students who move (aka “drop out and appear in another district,” though a reasonable person would not refer to a family move as a “dropout” situation) as dropouts? Does it count students who move into the school after grade 9 and then graduate?
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California has the highest population of students that have no chance of graduating due to the circumstance of “0″ opportunity. There is a statistical need to document the enrollment of all students for apportionment. Then, reality confuses the probability of completion by the dynamics of poverty. Public assistance required enrollment in school for eligibility after the age of 16. Enroll in September, get the check in October, and drop and return in September of the next year. Work permits for the under age student required enrollment. Support the family, and do what you had to do to keep the work permit. When the measure of success of an impoverished school district is middle class criteria, failure is the only option. Keep beating the drum of “high expectations” and revel in the suffering of those that have no control to correct the abyss of frustrating poverty.
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Mr. Lobby makes interesting points, but I still want to get to the heart of this. Is Education Week’s Diplomas Count claiming that a student who leaves a high school for any reason is a dropout, making no distinction between an actual dropout and a diligent student whose parents relocated to take a new job and who properly enrolled at a new school? John, is that the kind of situation you referred to as dropping out and reappearing in a new district? If that is the case, this is so clearly invalid on its face that nobody should even be discussing Education Week’s Diplomas Count. Am I misunderstanding this?
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Not ignoring your question, Caroline. Just don’t have a solid answer yet.
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