The announcement that California is a finalist for Race to the Top all but guarantees that the State Board of Education will adopt common core standards, as amended, in English language arts and math when it meets Monday. The state would sacrifice 40 out of 500 points on its application if it didn’t – and any chance of winning up to $700 million.

California is hardly alone among states adopting national standards to meet the feds’ artificial Aug. 2 deadline to stay in the running – even though the $700 million that the state could get from common core will be dwarfed by the long-term cost of new textbooks, teacher training, testing and curriculum creation. But never mind; the rush is on, and the State Board is boxed in: It only can vote the intact standards up or down.

Still, before they adopt the national standards, as augmented and recommended by the State Academic Content Standards Commission, state board members should pause and answer this critical question:

Five years after the adoption of common core math, what will be the impact on eighth graders?

A) The percentage taking Algebra I, currently about 60 percent (including 7^th graders the year before), may increase, but even if it doesn’t, the proportion of those who are proficient in it after eighth grade, now about 48 percent, will rise.

B) The percentage taking Algebra I will fall drastically, probably in half right away, then decline over time to the teens, because common core leaves them unprepared for algebra at the end of seventh grade and overwhelmed in eighth.

C) California will once again have two tracks in math, with, you guessed it, more low-income and brown kids taking pre-algebra in eighth, with middle class Asians and whites taking Algebra I, with big implications as to who goes on to CSU campuses and the University of California.

The common-core standards broadly lay out what skills and knowledge in math and English students should learn at every grade. But in California, which differs from most states in pushing all children to take Algebra I, the all-consuming debate has been whether the state could adopt common core and maintain its rigorous math standards, including Algebra I in eighth grade.

So if members of the State Board can’t answer “A” in good conscience, then they should reject common core. And if they’re ambivalent or uncertain, then they  should at least create some latitude for a body, if not the board, to revisit and fix problem areas later.

Some background:

Common core standards, as created in less than six months by the National Governors Assn. and the Council of Chief State School Officers, spread Algebra I over eighth and ninth grades.

Gov. Schwarzenegger, a proponent of universal Algebra I in eighth grade, objected strenuously. So the content standards commission, meeting over six weeks this summer, essentially created two options for eighth grade: pre-algebra consisting of the common core eighth grade standards for those who aren’t ready for full-fledged Algebra I and a full Algebra I course consisting of eighth and ninth grade common core algebra standards, plus a half-dozen California algebra standards that two commissioners persuaded the others should be included. It also has some geometry and statistics and probability standards thrown in, because common core included them, too.

The commission voted 14-2 in favor of this approach.

Fewer, clear standards: the case for

At least 28 states have adopted common core (the number changes daily). Supporters in California argue that K-7 standards are better than the current California standards in key respects. They’re fewer of them – a big plus for California teachers who complain about the sheer volume of state standards; therefore, they will allow teachers to go into greater depth and give students a better understanding of the concepts behind rote processes. They are more cohesive, and they do fractions and decimals – a critical foundation for algebra – much better. The chief proponent of this view is UC Berkeley math professor Hung-Hsi Wu, who helped write both the current California math standards and the fractions portion of common core.

Wu and others are convinced that K-7 common core will prepare California students for Algebra I in eighth grade. But just in case, the standards commission moved five algebra/pre-algebra standards down from grade eight to grade seven. As a result, members feel confident that more California students will be prepared for Algebra I than before. My hunch is they’re right.

Mess of standards in eighth grade: case against

The pessimists are led by the two commissioners who voted no, Bill Evers, a Hoover Institution researcher, and Ze’ev Wurman, a Palo Alto software engineer who has made math standards his calling. Both helped create the California math standards and prefer them to common core. Afflicted by a pride of ownership perhaps, they tried relentlessly and unsuccessfully to persuade other commissioners to graft many California standards onto common core and shift common core standards down to lower grades.

Having lost, they are continuing their battle in op-eds, including today’s San Francisco Chronicle. Cut through the provocative rhetoric – Evers accused his colleagues of “fetishistic devotion” to common core – and they make two points.

• Students will “hit a wall” when they arrive in eighth grade because they’re unprepared for algebra. Evers and  Wurman wanted a dozen and a half pre-algebra standards moved down to seventh grade and some seventh grade common core moved to sixth. Instead, five “minor” standards were moved to seventh.

• The eighth grade Algebra I course, with more than 70 pre-algebra, algebra, geometry and probability standards, is “obese” and “unteachable.” Over the past decade, the number of students taking Algebra I has quadrupled, including large numbers of minority students. That progress, they say, is about to be reversed. I doubt that, but agree that the commission, in its haste – and in part, at Evers’ and Wurman’s prodding–  stuffed too many standards into an Algebra I course.

Tracking minority students: odd argument

The prediction of tracking of minority children, made by California Teachers Association lobbyist Patricia Rucker, left me and a lot of others scratching their heads.

There will be two distinct courses in eighth grade, because the reality is some students won’t be ready for Algebra I. But K-7 standards will apply to all students, and common core may offer better preparation for kids of color. Even those who end up in pre-Algebra will be on a path to succeed in Algebra II, needed for admission to a state four-year school, in 11^th grade.

If fewer minority children are placed in Algebra I, policies and poor instruction, not standards, will be at fault. Poor and minority students are far more likely to be taught by inexperienced math teachers with emergency credentials or who are teaching out of their field. Funding is an issue but so are seniority rules that have led to a churn of young teachers at high-minority schools and the union’s opposition to higher pay for teachers in subjects of high demand. CTA, look to thyself.

Back to the question at hand: If I were a member of the State Board, I’d choose answer “A” and vote for common core. But I’d also recognize that potential problems are lurking in the grouping and sequence of algebra standards – and look for some way for others with more time and less pressure to double-check the work.