The proportion of Californians who favor Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposed tax initiative has increased: 72 percent say they support it, compared with 65 percent when asked a month ago, according to the latest poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Among likely voters, the support is slightly less: 68 percent, up 8 percentage points from December. Those strong numbers could bolster the governor’s case in trying to persuade groups with competing initiatives to back down and withdraw their proposals.

Brown is drawing the most support from voters who favor first and foremost protecting K-12 education: 62 percent of likely voters said they’d pay higher taxes for that purpose; less than half  said they’d support higher taxes for health and human services (49 percent), higher education (46 percent), or prison and corrections (only 12 percent).

Brown is proposing to temporarily increase the sales tax by a half percentage point and to raise the income tax rate on the wealthy, starting in January 2013. The Department of Finance estimates it would raise $6.9 billion the first year (the Legislative Analyst is projecting only $4.8 billion) for the General Fund, with a portion of it boosting Proposition 98 spending. But Brown has been calling it a tax for education funding, and a friendly reading from the Attorney General’s office, in the title and summary for the ballot, confirmed that notion: “TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT. Increases personal income tax on annual earnings over $250,000 for five years. Increases sales and use tax by 1/2 cent for four years. Allocates temporary tax revenues 89 percent to K-12 schools and 11 percent to community colleges. …”

Brown's tax initiative would have widespred support if the election were tomorrow. Click to enlarge.

PPIC’s question about the initiative also cast it as an education tax. Poll respondents were asked: “The initiative would raise about $5 to $7 billion annually with the new revenues going to K–12 public schools. Do you favor or oppose the proposed tax initiative?”

The question drew two-thirds majority support across regions and demographic groups. Democrats (85 percent) and Independents (65 percent) backed it overwhelmingly, but even 53 percent of Republicans favored it.

And respondents favored it, even though, questioned separately, over two-thirds (69 percent) of respondents said they would oppose raising the state sales tax to 7.75 percent. On the other hand, 74 percent favored raising taxes on the wealthy.

The one group that’s not broken out, however – luckily for Brown – is school officials and education advocates, those most knowledgeable about his proposed budget. As I wrote earlier this week, Brown is not proposing to use the new tax revenues to increase spending for schools; instead, he wants to use nearly $5 billion to pay down deferrals – short-term debt the state owes schools. He proposes not to pay the 3 percent cost-of-living increase that schools would be owed next year. (In a caution to Brown, 75 percent of those polled also said they’d oppose the nearly $5 billion in automatic cuts to K-12 and community colleges if his initiative fails.)

Selling the initiative as an education tax will remain Brown’s strongest suit – but also could become a challenge as voters, too, learn that their schools won’t be getting more money. That’s why Ted Lempert, president of Children Now, is leading an effort to pressure Brown to amend his initiative both to include policy reforms and to increase the money specifically going to K-12 schools and early childhood education.

Will Brown do a rewrite?

“The poll makes me optimistic; it shows the public supports more  money for schools,” Lempert said  Tuesday. “But you cannot go by a poll January. The governor will need broadly defined education groups, including parents and districts, on his side.”

Lempert supports a key reform that Brown is proposing this year: the adoption of a weighted student formula that will provide extra dollars to districts with concentrations of English learners and low-income students. But there must be new money  to do the system right and avoid winners and losers, Lempert said.

Lempert said that ideally, Brown would agree within the next week or so to rewrite his initiative to guarantee more money for education. Alternatively, the Legislature could make adjustments in the budget process, to prevent Brown from manipulating Proposition 98 spending levels, or legislators could pass clarifying statutes spelling out the intent of the initiative.

Two competing initiatives would provide more money for schools through taxes that the PPIC poll indicates that voters would favor. The California Federation of Teachers would raise about $6 billion by increasing the income tax on those earning more than $1 million annually. Civil rights attorney Molly Munger would raise up to $10 billion by increasing income taxes of all but the poor, with the richest Californians paying the steepest increases. Neither Munger nor the CFT has given any sign of backing down at this point.